Are folks complacent into the heart of earnings with regard to option prices. I think the following chart will provide the answer:
In fact, the last time we were this low, in July 2023, we commenced a continual papercut grind lower beginning….August 1st of course:
And it ended with grandma Yellen easing fears during the October treasury refunding announcement being more skewed toward shorter dated maturities:
Believe it or not, here we are again, with the next funding announcement gaining folks attention, with another game around long versus short dated funding:
And like that October, markets expect the same result, more supposed easing essentially:
Just another thing to watch I guess, the morning of when all these vol events initiate, Fed/giga tech earnings/PCE/payrolls, etc. With implied vol not really caring much about all of this, it seems like a decent time to start some put flies.